Look Into The Future of Energy Systems.

CLEEN2040

Climate Led Energy Evolution Network 2040

The Headlines.

"Power Stations Gone By 2030, Report Suggests."

networkworld.com

"BP, Shell Lead Plan to Use Blockchain Platform for Energy Trading."

reuters.com

"World Must Hit Zero Carbon Emissions 'Well Before 2040', Scientists Warn."

independent.co.uk

"Global Energy Storage to Double 6 Times by 2030, Matching Solar's Spectacular Rise."

greentechmedia.com

"Net Zero Buildings Will Be the Standard by 2030."

canadianconsultingengineer.com

Vision.

To increase the success of energy sector stakeholders through system scenario predictions not limited by the paradigms of the present or past.

CLEEN2040 is a look-ahead research network of energy providers, consumers, regulators, and ancillary players working to advance the success of all stakeholders through climate-conditioned, technical, and economic innovation. This is achieved through flexible near-term, and long-view parameterized modelling of interconnected energy systems from system operator, to local distribution, to end user.

CLEEN2040

MISSION

Objectives.

PREPARE

Prepare stakeholders for the significant changes likely to occur in our energy systems between now and the year 2040.

CREATE

Create new opportunities for commerce, increased employment, and environmental benefits through a more informed view of the future of energy systems.

ADVANCE

Advance Canada's energy economy through increased awareness of operational, financial, and environmental opportunity for optimization.

Methodology.

Our Stakeholders.

System Operators

Market Participants

Utilities

End Users

Step 1. Establish Current Demand Models.

High-level, lumped parameter, technoeconomic demand models are being established for representative stakeholders from each group. Baseline behaviour for each model will be calibrated through hindcasts into historical data. All models will follow a progressively determinate approach to construction.

"Progressively determinate" models begin as functional but very coarse estimations of system behaviour. These estimations are improved as information and complexity is added to the model.

Step 2. Apply Modifiers To Base Models. Generate Extreme Demand Scenarios.

DEMAND

EXAMPLE DEMAND MODIFIER

MIN

MAX

MIN

MAX

NET ZERO CONSTRUCTION

DISPATCHABLE WIND

MIN

MAX

MIN

MAX

MIN

MAX

ELECTIFIED TRANSPORT

EMISSION TAXATION

PEER TO PEER TRANSACTIONS

MIN

MAX

ETC.

MODIFIER INTENSITY

An extensive list of modifying variables "sliders" will be added to those that already drive the base or present day models for each stakeholder group. Sliders will initially be moved to full limits to generate the most extreme scenarios for each group.

Step 3. Qualify All Scenarios Through Probability Forecasts.

The range of potential influence for each modifier will be qualified through comprehensive market evaluation. Expert determination of probability of occurrence will order all scenarios from most to least likely.

P=0.8

P=0.2

Anticipated Outcomes.

A spectrum of what-if scenarios intended to mitigate the risk of stakeholders being blindsided by rapid or highly improbable change.

Quantification of the potential sensitivity of a climate led energy economy to a series of influential modifiers.

Recommendations to policy makers and market regulators.

Revelations of additional or new commercial opportunities for currently engaged, or brand new energy system stakeholders.

Improved toolset for regional and national energy system planning.

Get Connected.

The success of the network is dependent on the participation of all stakeholder types. The strength of progressively determinant modelling is its ability to generate working simulations with limited data. However, modelling accuracy and indeterminacy is only improved with the addition of comprehensive data and qualified expertise. Join us and power the enlightening.

Return to Environmental Energy Institute Home Page to Join Mailing List and CLEEN2040. OR Contact us at rupp@uwindsor.ca.